Thursday, October 02, 2008

Which Do You Prefer: Pollyanna or Cassandra?

It's no secret that the global bank for which I work is endangered. Following the failures of Bear and Lehman, the rushed acquisition of Merrill, nationalization of a few European banks, and the radical restructuring of Goldman and Morgan Stanley the world is not a particularly safe place for an over levered financial firm in an industry plagued by excess capacity. If you surveyed those who care about such things, I'm confident my employer would be on most people's top five list of firms at greatest risk of failure.

In what I assume is either an effort to make employees feel better so they don't cancel their $2400 monthly subscription or a thinly veiled attempt to mock the Swiss, Bloomberg today published an article titled, "Zurichers Say UBS 'Won't Go Bankrupt' Like Swissair." Sweet! A major financial news source thinks that our stock price, down a mere 70%, isn't going to zero. What a welcome ray of sunshine in a dark world. Maybe we'll also have jobs and possibly even make a little money a year or two from now.

What astute financial analysts were quoted in the article to support the cheery conclusion that bankruptcy will be avoided? I'm glad you asked. In order of appearance we have a 65-year-old financial consultant standing outside the bank's headquarters, a finance professor, a bratwurst-eating tram driver, and a mailman. I for one feel much better knowing that an under utilized consultant (who has time to stand around outside buildings and talk to reporters in this environment?), an academic from an institution no one has heard of, and two blue collar workers think everything is going to be fine.

Can't wait for the 11 o'clock news when BoBo the Omniscient chimp will provide his global economic commentary.

4 Comments:

Blogger Denise said...

No worries. I've already scheduled Bobo on the Tivo. See when all hell breaks loose, I've got your back, hon.

October 02, 2008  
Blogger PassTheChips said...

Jim Cramer yesteday included UBS as a part of his Financials Fortress. He was screaming/crying while doing it, so I'm not quite sure what that means, but hey, you're in his fortress.

October 14, 2008  
Blogger daniel said...

um, that's not very comforting mike. thankfully we sucked punched the swiss government for $60B so jobs are secure for another few weeks.

October 17, 2008  
Blogger PassTheChips said...

Don't hate The Fortress.

October 17, 2008  

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